Commentary  25921
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Iowa


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      85%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in all 50
states, the District of Columbia and 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The
House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the
Iowa housing market for the 12 months ending with the 4th Quarter of 2018 is
UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Projection for Iowa is 85%. In other words, when
tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 85% of
the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for
rising house prices in Iowa is 85% during this period. If this Housing Market
Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 4th Quarter of 2018 than
they were in the 4th Quarter of 2017. Check this page each quarter for updates
to the Iowa Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      81%

The forecast for the trend in the Iowa housing market for the 3 years ending
with the 4th Quarter of 2020 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Prediction for
Iowa is 81%. In other words, when tested against historical data, the forecasting
methodology was correct 81% of the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com
estimates that the probability for rising house prices in Iowa is 81% during this
period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct, home values will be higher in
the 4th Quarter of 2020 than they were in the 4th Quarter of 2017. Check this
page each quarter for updates to the Iowa Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Iowa


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     0.59%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  4.8%
Last 5 Years                                     17%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18%
Last 20 Years                                   73%



Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1988      5.61%
1989      5.62%
1990      4.86%
1991      4.91%
1992      4.21%
1993      5.61%
1994      6.59%
1995      5.76%
1996      3.80%
1997      4.52%
1998      5.00%
1999      3.64%
2000      4.54%
2001      5.20%
2002      3.50%
2003      4.23%
2004      4.42%
2005      4.78%
2006      2.02%
2007      1.76%
2008      -0.34%
2009      -0.53%
2010      0.46%
2011      -0.15%
2012      1.11%
2013      1.48%
2014      2.73%
2015      3.69%
2016      3.71%
2017      4.81%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              0.59%         Rank: 32 of 51 (38th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  4.8%           Rank: 32 of 51 (38th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              17%            Rank: 32 of 51 (38th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   18%            Rank: 11 of 51 (80th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            73%            Rank: 37 of 51 (28th Percentile)


The change in home prices for Iowa are shown above for five time periods. For
example: Iowa appreciated 0.59% in the Last Quarter. At that rate, the Iowa
Real Estate Market was ranked 32nd out of the 51 real estate markets of all 50
U.S. States and the District of Columbia. Iowa was in the 38th percentile. So
Iowa performed better in the Last Quarter than 38% of these 51 real estate
markets.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Iowa

The all time high in the Iowa Home Price Index was 292.7 in the 4th Quarter, of
2017.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Iowa Market is up 18% over the
last 10 years. Home prices in the Iowa Real Estate Market have gained 4.81%
over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 186%.

The 4th Quarter index value was 1.73 points higher than the 3rd Quarter, 2017
index value of 290.94, resulting in a 0.59% rise in the 4th Quarter for the Iowa
Market.

The Iowa Home Price Index has increased for the last 15 consecutive quarters.
The current record holder for consecutive increases in the Home Price Index is
Washington DC, with increases in the last 27 consecutive quarters. The current
record holders for consecutive declines in the Home Price Index are North
Dakota and Connecticut, with declines in the last 1 consecutive quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Iowa Real Estate
Market was 16% in the twelve months ended with the 1st Quarter of 1976. The
worst annual change in home values  in the Iowa Market was -13% in the twelve
months ended with the 3rd Quarter of 1981.

The highest growth in home values in the Iowa Real Estate Market over a three
year period was 20% in the three years ended with the 1st Quarter of 1996.
The worst performance over a three year period in the Iowa Market was -2% in
the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2011.

This page provides a long term graph and commentary of the Iowa Home Price
Index.  Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's detailed research and
statistics about Iowa Home Prices will be at your fingertips when you need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Iowa Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as used in
this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price
Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Iowa Real Estate Market. As a result, Home
Price data is not available for a number of months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Iowa

The trend of Iowa Home Prices relative to 50 states and the District of Columbia
is detailed below. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each paragraph
identifies the top and bottom performing markets as well as the average and
median performance for all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 4th Quarter of 2017, Iowa Home Prices had a rank of 32, with
appreciation of 0.59%. The top performing real estate market during the 4th
Quarter was Nevada, with a rise of 2.66%. The worst market during that period
was North Dakota, with appreciation of -0.47%.
The median for all markets during the 4th Quarter was 0.82%. The average for
the quarter was 0.83%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Iowa Home Prices had a rank of 32, with
appreciation during the year of 4.81%. The top performing market during the
last year was Nevada, with an increase of 11.7%. The worst real estate market
during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of 1.2%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.46%. The average was
5.69%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2017, Iowa Home Prices ranked
32, with a total appreciation of 17.5%. The top performing real estate market
during the 5 year period was Nevada, with a growth in value of 82%. The worst
market during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of 4%.
The median for all markets during this period was 20%. The average over the 5
years was 27%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2017, Iowa Home Prices had a
rank of 11, with appreciation during the decade of 18%. The top performing
market during the period was North Dakota, with a rise of 51%. The worst real
estate market during the 10 year time period was Connecticut, with appreciation
of -14%.
The median for all markets over the last 10 years was 9%. The average over
that time frame was 10%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2017, Iowa Home Prices had a
rank of 37, with total growth over the 20 year period of 73%. The top performing
real estate market during the period was Washington DC, with an increase of
358%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Ohio, with appreciation of
42%.
The median for all markets during the last 20 years was 96%. The average  
over that period was 103%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Iowa Real Estate
Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Iowa. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Wednesday, May 9, 2018.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.


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Iowa - House Price Index (HPI)
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The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Iowa single family home prices in logarithmic scale.
The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and appreciation
rates are provided below.
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2035
2015
2020
2025
2030
100
1000
10