Commentary  25923
3rd Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Illinois


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      89%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in all 50
states, the District of Columbia and 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The
House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the
Illinois housing market for the 12 months ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2018 is
UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Projection for Illinois is 89%. In other words,
when tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct
89% of the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability
for rising house prices in Illinois is 89% during this period. If this Housing Market
Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2018 than
they were in the 3rd Quarter of 2017. Check this page each quarter for updates
to the Illinois Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      83%

The forecast for the trend in the Illinois housing market for the 3 years ending
with the 3rd Quarter of 2020 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Prediction for
Illinois is 83%. In other words, when tested against historical data, the
forecasting methodology was correct 83% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Illinois is 83% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2020 than they were in the 3rd
Quarter of 2017. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Illinois Real
Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
3rd Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Illinois


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     1.05%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  3.7%
Last 5 Years                                     16%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -7%
Last 20 Years                                   57%
Decline From All Time High               8.03%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1987      9.56%
1988      8.69%
1989      7.49%
1990      3.71%
1991      4.40%
1992      3.45%
1993      3.48%
1994      3.90%
1995      4.65%
1996      2.87%
1997      3.39%
1998      3.00%
1999      4.62%
2000      6.64%
2001      5.94%
2002      6.05%
2003      6.75%
2004      8.31%
2005      8.55%
2006      4.03%
2007      -0.20%
2008      -5.93%
2009      -7.24%
2010      -2.38%
2011      -4.66%
2012      -1.33%
2013      0.92%
2014      4.01%
2015      3.01%
2016      3.83%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              1.05%         Rank: 36 of 51 (30th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  3.7%           Rank: 36 of 51 (30th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              16%            Rank: 37 of 51 (28th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   -7%            Rank: 44 of 51 (14th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            57%            Rank: 48 of 51 (6th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        8.03%

The change in home prices for Illinois are shown above for five time periods.
For example: Illinois appreciated 1.05% in the Last Quarter. At that rate, the
Illinois Real Estate Market was ranked 36th out of the 51 real estate markets of
all 50 U.S. States and the District of Columbia. Illinois was in the 30th percentile.
So Illinois performed better in the Last Quarter than 30% of these 51 real estate
markets.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
3rd Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Illinois

The data and analysis on this page pertains to Illinois, hereinafter referred to as
"Illinois". The all time high in the Illinois Home Price Index was 373.4 in the 1st
Quarter, of 2007. The 3rd Quarter, 2017 index value was 343.4. That's a
decline of 29.99 points or 8.03% below the Illinois Home Price Index all time
high.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Illinois Market is down 7% over
the last 10 years. Home prices in the Illinois Real Estate Market have gained
3.66% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 148%.

The 3rd Quarter index value was 3.57 points higher than the 2nd Quarter, 2017
index value of 339.82, resulting in a 1.05% rise in the 3rd Quarter for the Illinois
Market.

The Illinois Home Price Index has increased for the last 18 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index is Washington DC, with increases in the last 26 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive declines in the Home Price
Index is West Virginia, with declines in the last 1 consecutive quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Illinois Real Estate
Market was 22% in the twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 1977. The
worst annual change in home values  in the Illinois Market was -8% in the twelve
months ended with the 1st Quarter of 2010.

The highest growth in home values in the Illinois Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 30% in the three years ended with the 3rd Quarter of
1988. The worst performance over a three year period in the Illinois Market was
-17% in the three years ended with the 1st Quarter of 2011.

This page provides a long term graph and commentary of the Illinois Home
Price Index.  Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's detailed research
and statistics about Illinois Home Prices will be at your fingertips when you need
them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Illinois Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as used
in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price
Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Illinois Real Estate Market. As a result, Home
Price data is not available for a number of months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
3rd Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Illinois

The trend of Illinois Home Prices relative to 50 states and the District of
Columbia is detailed below. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each
paragraph identifies the top and bottom performing markets as well as the
average and median performance for all cities during each time period. The
data and analysis on this page pertains to Illinois, hereinafter referred to as
"Illinois".

Last Quarter:
During the 3rd Quarter of 2017, Illinois Home Prices had a rank of 36, with
appreciation of 1.05%. The top performing real estate market during the 3rd
Quarter was Nevada, with a rise of 3.16%. The worst market during that period
was West Virginia, with appreciation of -0.23%.
The median for all markets during the 3rd Quarter was 1.38%. The average for
the quarter was 1.43%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Illinois Home Prices had a rank of 36, with
appreciation during the year of 3.66%. The top performing market during the
last year was Washington, with an increase of 11.4%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Delaware, with appreciation of 1.2%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.60%. The average was
5.58%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2017, Illinois Home Prices
ranked 37, with a total appreciation of 15.8%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Nevada, with a growth in value of 83%.
The worst market during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of 4%.
The median for all markets during this period was 19%. The average over the 5
years was 27%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2017, Illinois Home Prices had
a rank of 44, with appreciation during the decade of -7%. The top performing
market during the period was North Dakota, with a rise of 52%. The worst real
estate market during the 10 year time period was Connecticut, with appreciation
of -14%.
The median for all markets over the last 10 years was 8%. The average over
that time frame was 10%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 3rd Quarter of 2017, Illinois Home Prices had
a rank of 48, with total growth over the 20 year period of 57%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was Washington DC, with an
increase of 351%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Ohio, with
appreciation of 43%.
The median for all markets during the last 20 years was 97%. The average  
over that period was 104%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Illinois Real Estate
Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Illinois. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Thursday, February 22, 2018.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.


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Illinois - House Price Index (HPI)
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The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Illinois single family home prices in logarithmic
scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and
appreciation rates are provided below.
1975
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1995
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2005
2010
2035
2015
2020
2025
2030
100
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