Commentary  25918
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Florida


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      92%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in all 50
states, the District of Columbia and 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The
House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the
Florida housing market for the 12 months ending with the 1st Quarter of 2019 is
UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Projection for Florida is 92%. In other words,
when tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct
92% of the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability
for rising house prices in Florida is 92% during this period. If this Housing
Market Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 1st Quarter of
2019 than they were in the 1st Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter
for updates to the Florida Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      88%

The forecast for the trend in the Florida housing market for the 3 years ending
with the 1st Quarter of 2021 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Prediction for
Florida is 88%. In other words, when tested against historical data, the
forecasting methodology was correct 88% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Florida is 88% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 1st Quarter of 2021 than they were in the 1st
Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Florida Real
Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Florida


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     1.88%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  8.8%
Last 5 Years                                     58%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%
Last 20 Years                                   138%
Decline From All Time High               8.19%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1988      4.80%
1989      3.96%
1990      0.27%
1991      3.07%
1992      2.10%
1993      3.03%
1994      -0.75%
1995      4.48%
1996      1.24%
1997      4.33%
1998      4.75%
1999      3.89%
2000      8.20%
2001      10.48%
2002      10.54%
2003      12.06%
2004      19.79%
2005      27.35%
2006      7.70%
2007      -7.84%
2008      -21.95%
2009      -11.47%
2010      -5.36%
2011      -5.81%
2012      1.05%
2013      10.22%
2014      8.49%
2015      9.73%
2016      9.50%
2017      9.34%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              1.88%         Rank: 11 of 51 (80th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  8.8%           Rank: 7 of 51 (88th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              58%            Rank: 3 of 51 (96th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   4%              Rank: 38 of 51 (26th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            138%          Rank: 7 of 51 (88th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        8.19%

The change in home prices for Florida are shown above for five time periods.
For example: Florida appreciated 1.88% in the Last Quarter. At that rate, the
Florida Real Estate Market was ranked 11th out of the 51 real estate markets of
all 50 U.S. States and the District of Columbia. Florida was in the 80th
percentile. So Florida performed better in the Last Quarter than 80% of these
51 real estate markets.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Florida

The all time high in the Florida Home Price Index was 481.8 in the 4th Quarter,
of 2006. The 1st Quarter, 2018 index value was 442.3. That's a decline of
39.47 points or 8.19% below the Florida Home Price Index all time high.  The
Home Price Index indicates that the Florida Market is up 4% over the last 10
years. Home prices in the Florida Real Estate Market have gained 8.85% over
the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 212%.

The 1st Quarter index value was 8.16 points higher than the 4th Quarter, 2017
index value of 434.12, resulting in a 1.88% rise in the 1st Quarter for the
Florida Market.

The Florida Home Price Index has increased for the last 23 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index is Washington DC, with increases in the last 28 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive declines in the Home Price
Index are North Dakota and Connecticut, with declines in the last 2 consecutive
quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Florida Real Estate
Market was 27% in the twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 2005. The
worst annual change in home values  in the Florida Market was -22% in the
twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 2008.

The highest growth in home values in the Florida Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 74% in the three years ended with the 1st Quarter of
2006. The worst performance over a three year period in the Florida Market
was -38% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2010.

This page provides a long term graph and commentary of the Florida Home
Price Index.  Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's detailed research
and statistics about Florida Home Prices will be at your fingertips when you
need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Florida Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Florida Real Estate Market. As a result,
Home Price data is not available for a number of months after the end of each
quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Florida

The trend of Florida Home Prices relative to 50 states and the District of
Columbia is detailed below. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each
paragraph identifies the top and bottom performing markets as well as the
average and median performance for all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 1st Quarter of 2018, Florida Home Prices had a rank of 11, with
appreciation of 1.88%. The top performing real estate market during the 1st
Quarter was Nevada, with a rise of 3.23%. The worst market during that period
was Alaska, with appreciation of -0.96%.
The median for all markets during the 1st Quarter was 1.11%. The average for
the quarter was 1.11%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Florida Home Prices had a rank of 7, with
appreciation during the year of 8.85%. The top performing market during the
last year was Nevada, with an increase of 13.2%. The worst real estate market
during that period was North Dakota, with appreciation of 0.6%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.98%. The average was
6.06%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 1st Quarter of 2018, Florida Home Prices
ranked 3, with a total appreciation of 57.9%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Nevada, with a growth in value of 83%.
The worst market during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of 4%.
The median for all markets during this period was 21%. The average over the 5
years was 27%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 1st Quarter of 2018, Florida Home Prices had
a rank of 38, with appreciation during the decade of 4%. The top performing
market during the period was Colorado, with a rise of 52%. The worst real
estate market during the 10 year time period was Connecticut, with appreciation
of -14%.
The median for all markets over the last 10 years was 10%. The average over
that time frame was 12%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 1st Quarter of 2018, Florida Home Prices had
a rank of 7, with total growth over the 20 year period of 138%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was Washington DC, with an
increase of 347%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Ohio, with
appreciation of 41%.
The median for all markets during the last 20 years was 98%. The average  
over that period was 103%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Florida Real Estate
Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Florida. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Thursday, August 16, 2018.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.


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Florida - House Price Index (HPI)
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The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Florida single family home prices in logarithmic
scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and
appreciation rates are provided below.
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2035
2015
2020
2025
2030
100
1000
10