Commentary  25917
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Delaware


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      85%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in all 50
states, the District of Columbia and 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The
House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the
Delaware housing market for the 12 months ending with the 4th Quarter of
2018 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Projection for Delaware is 85%. In other
words, when tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology was
correct 85% of the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the
probability for rising house prices in Delaware is 85% during this period. If this
Housing Market Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 4th
Quarter of 2018 than they were in the 4th Quarter of 2017. Check this page
each quarter for updates to the Delaware Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      78%

The forecast for the trend in the Delaware housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 4th Quarter of 2020 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for Delaware is 78%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 78% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Delaware is 78% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 4th Quarter of 2020 than they were in the 4th
Quarter of 2017. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Delaware
Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Delaware


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     1.91%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  2.3%
Last 5 Years                                     12%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -9%
Last 20 Years                                   89%
Decline From All Time High               9.52%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1988      10.25%
1989      8.06%
1990      0.08%
1991      3.34%
1992      0.73%
1993      0.02%
1994      -2.94%
1995      2.32%
1996      1.52%
1997      1.82%
1998      2.79%
1999      4.47%
2000      6.75%
2001      7.38%
2002      8.71%
2003      9.97%
2004      15.21%
2005      14.29%
2006      6.87%
2007      -0.06%
2008      -5.39%
2009      -5.71%
2010      -2.42%
2011      -5.02%
2012      -1.44%
2013      1.08%
2014      1.77%
2015      2.99%
2016      3.37%
2017      2.33%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              1.91%         Rank: 3 of 51 (96th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  2.3%           Rank: 47 of 51 (8th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              12%            Rank: 47 of 51 (8th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   -9%            Rank: 49 of 51 (4th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            89%            Rank: 30 of 51 (42nd Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        9.52%

The change in home prices for Delaware are shown above for five time periods.
For example: Delaware appreciated 1.91% in the Last Quarter. At that rate, the
Delaware Real Estate Market was ranked 3rd out of the 51 real estate markets
of all 50 U.S. States and the District of Columbia. Delaware was in the 96th
percentile. So Delaware performed better in the Last Quarter than 96% of these
51 real estate markets.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Delaware

The all time high in the Delaware Home Price Index was 502.3 in the 2nd
Quarter, of 2007. The 4th Quarter, 2017 index value was 454.5. That's a
decline of 47.80 points or 9.52% below the Delaware Home Price Index all time
high.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Delaware Market is down 9%
over the last 10 years. Home prices in the Delaware Real Estate Market have
gained 2.33% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 141%.

The 4th Quarter index value was 8.53 points higher than the 3rd Quarter, 2017
index value of 445.99, resulting in a 1.91% rise in the 4th Quarter for the
Delaware Market.

The Delaware Home Price Index has increased for the last 3 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index is Washington DC, with increases in the last 27 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive declines in the Home Price
Index are North Dakota and Connecticut, with declines in the last 1 consecutive
quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Delaware Real Estate
Market was 24% in the twelve months ended with the 2nd Quarter of 1980. The
worst annual change in home values  in the Delaware Market was -30% in the
twelve months ended with the 3rd Quarter of 1976.

The highest growth in home values in the Delaware Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 46% in the three years ended with the 1st Quarter of
2006. The worst performance over a three year period in the Delaware Market
was -16% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2011.

This page provides a long term graph and commentary of the Delaware Home
Price Index.  Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's detailed research
and statistics about Delaware Home Prices will be at your fingertips when you
need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Delaware Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Delaware Real Estate Market. As a result,
Home Price data is not available for a number of months after the end of each
quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
4th Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Delaware

The trend of Delaware Home Prices relative to 50 states and the District of
Columbia is detailed below. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each
paragraph identifies the top and bottom performing markets as well as the
average and median performance for all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 4th Quarter of 2017, Delaware Home Prices had a rank of 3, with
appreciation of 1.91%. The top performing real estate market during the 4th
Quarter was Nevada, with a rise of 2.66%. The worst market during that period
was North Dakota, with appreciation of -0.47%.
The median for all markets during the 4th Quarter was 0.82%. The average for
the quarter was 0.83%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Delaware Home Prices had a rank of 47, with
appreciation during the year of 2.33%. The top performing market during the
last year was Nevada, with an increase of 11.7%. The worst real estate market
during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of 1.2%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.46%. The average was
5.69%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 4th Quarter of 2017, Delaware Home Prices
ranked 47, with a total appreciation of 12.1%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Nevada, with a growth in value of 82%.
The worst market during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of 4%.
The median for all markets during this period was 20%. The average over the 5
years was 27%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2017, Delaware Home Prices
had a rank of 49, with appreciation during the decade of -9%. The top
performing market during the period was North Dakota, with a rise of 51%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Connecticut, with
appreciation of -14%.
The median for all markets over the last 10 years was 9%. The average over
that time frame was 10%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 4th Quarter of 2017, Delaware Home Prices
had a rank of 30, with total growth over the 20 year period of 89%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was Washington DC, with an
increase of 358%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Ohio, with
appreciation of 42%.
The median for all markets during the last 20 years was 96%. The average  
over that period was 103%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Delaware Real Estate
Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Delaware. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Wednesday, May 9, 2018.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.


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Alabama Real Estate Market: Percent Change in Home Prices
Delaware Real Estate Market & Home Price Forecast
Delaware Real Estate: Housing Market Trend
Delaware - House Price Index (HPI)
LittleBigHomes.com
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Delaware single family home prices in logarithmic
scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and
appreciation rates are provided below.
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2035
2015
2020
2025
2030
100
1000
10