Commentary  25914
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Colorado


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      85%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in all 50
states, the District of Columbia and 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The
House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the
Colorado housing market for the 12 months ending with the 1st Quarter of 2019
is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Projection for Colorado is 85%. In other
words, when tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology was
correct 85% of the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the
probability for rising house prices in Colorado is 85% during this period. If this
Housing Market Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 1st
Quarter of 2019 than they were in the 1st Quarter of 2018. Check this page
each quarter for updates to the Colorado Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      74%

The forecast for the trend in the Colorado housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 1st Quarter of 2021 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for Colorado is 74%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 74% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Colorado is 74% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 1st Quarter of 2021 than they were in the 1st
Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Colorado
Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Colorado


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     2.71%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  9.9%
Last 5 Years                                     60%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52%
Last 20 Years                                   153%



Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1988      -0.86%
1989      2.61%
1990      2.13%
1991      4.97%
1992      8.00%
1993      9.93%
1994      11.08%
1995      7.73%
1996      5.19%
1997      5.72%
1998      5.81%
1999      10.35%
2000      11.61%
2001      7.75%
2002      4.36%
2003      2.35%
2004      3.88%
2005      5.06%
2006      2.14%
2007      0.06%
2008      -1.85%
2009      -2.39%
2010      -1.37%
2011      -2.35%
2012      2.35%
2013      7.57%
2014      8.96%
2015      11.89%
2016      10.05%
2017      9.34%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              2.71%         Rank: 2 of 51 (98th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  9.9%           Rank: 4 of 51 (94th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              60%            Rank: 2 of 51 (98th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   52%            Rank: 1 of 51 (100th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            153%          Rank: 4 of 51 (94th Percentile)


The change in home prices for Colorado are shown above for five time periods.
For example: Colorado appreciated 2.71% in the Last Quarter. At that rate, the
Colorado Real Estate Market was ranked 2nd out of the 51 real estate markets
of all 50 U.S. States and the District of Columbia. Colorado was in the 98th
percentile. So Colorado performed better in the Last Quarter than 98% of these
51 real estate markets.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Colorado

The all time high in the Colorado Home Price Index was 551.1 in the 1st
Quarter, of 2018.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Colorado Market is
up 52% over the last 10 years. Home prices in the Colorado Real Estate Market
have gained 9.90% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up
338%.

The 1st Quarter index value was 14.56 points higher than the 4th Quarter,
2017 index value of 536.51, resulting in a 2.71% rise in the 1st Quarter for the
Colorado Market.

The Colorado Home Price Index has increased for the last 24 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index is Washington DC, with increases in the last 28 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive declines in the Home Price
Index are North Dakota and Connecticut, with declines in the last 2 consecutive
quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Colorado Real Estate
Market was 22% in the twelve months ended with the 2nd Quarter of 1978. The
worst annual change in home values  in the Colorado Market was -5% in the
twelve months ended with the 1st Quarter of 2010.

The highest growth in home values in the Colorado Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 36% in the three years ended with the 1st Quarter of
2018. The worst performance over a three year period in the Colorado Market
was -9% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2011.

This page provides a long term graph and commentary of the Colorado Home
Price Index.  Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's detailed research
and statistics about Colorado Home Prices will be at your fingertips when you
need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Colorado Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Colorado Real Estate Market. As a result,
Home Price data is not available for a number of months after the end of each
quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Colorado

The trend of Colorado Home Prices relative to 50 states and the District of
Columbia is detailed below. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each
paragraph identifies the top and bottom performing markets as well as the
average and median performance for all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 1st Quarter of 2018, Colorado Home Prices had a rank of 2, with
appreciation of 2.71%. The top performing real estate market during the 1st
Quarter was Nevada, with a rise of 3.23%. The worst market during that period
was Alaska, with appreciation of -0.96%.
The median for all markets during the 1st Quarter was 1.11%. The average for
the quarter was 1.11%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Colorado Home Prices had a rank of 4, with
appreciation during the year of 9.90%. The top performing market during the
last year was Nevada, with an increase of 13.2%. The worst real estate market
during that period was North Dakota, with appreciation of 0.6%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.98%. The average was
6.06%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 1st Quarter of 2018, Colorado Home Prices
ranked 2, with a total appreciation of 59.9%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Nevada, with a growth in value of 83%.
The worst market during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of 4%.
The median for all markets during this period was 21%. The average over the 5
years was 27%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 1st Quarter of 2018, Colorado Home Prices
outperformed every state, with appreciation during the decade of 52%. The
worst performer during the 10 year time period was Connecticut, with
appreciation of -14%.
The median for all markets over the last 10 years was 10%. The average over
that time frame was 12%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 1st Quarter of 2018, Colorado Home Prices
had a rank of 4, with total growth over the 20 year period of 153%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was Washington DC, with an
increase of 347%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Ohio, with
appreciation of 41%.
The median for all markets during the last 20 years was 98%. The average  
over that period was 103%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Colorado Real Estate
Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Colorado. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Thursday, August 16, 2018.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.


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Colorado - House Price Index (HPI)
LittleBigHomes.com
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Colorado single family home prices in logarithmic
scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and
appreciation rates are provided below.
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2035
2015
2020
2025
2030
100
1000
10