Commentary  25913
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: California


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      85%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in all 50
states, the District of Columbia and 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The
House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the
California housing market for the 12 months ending with the 1st Quarter of
2019 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Projection for California is 85%. In other
words, when tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology was
correct 85% of the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the
probability for rising house prices in California is 85% during this period. If this
Housing Market Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 1st
Quarter of 2019 than they were in the 1st Quarter of 2018. Check this page
each quarter for updates to the California Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      77%

The forecast for the trend in the California housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 1st Quarter of 2021 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for California is 77%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 77% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
California is 77% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 1st Quarter of 2021 than they were in the 1st
Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates to the California
Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: California


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     1.80%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  8.1%
Last 5 Years                                     57%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18%
Last 20 Years                                   194%
Decline From All Time High               1.06%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1988      19.31%
1989      19.85%
1990      1.70%
1991      0.02%
1992      -2.68%
1993      -3.83%
1994      -6.21%
1995      1.28%
1996      -0.95%
1997      5.35%
1998      9.14%
1999      7.90%
2000      14.19%
2001      10.80%
2002      13.36%
2003      14.62%
2004      25.41%
2005      21.07%
2006      2.66%
2007      -10.44%
2008      -22.58%
2009      -7.25%
2010      -1.60%
2011      -5.05%
2012      3.26%
2013      16.90%
2014      8.26%
2015      7.70%
2016      6.74%
2017      8.33%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              1.80%         Rank: 14 of 51 (74th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  8.1%           Rank: 10 of 51 (82nd Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              57%            Rank: 4 of 51 (94th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   18%            Rank: 12 of 51 (78th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            194%          Rank: 2 of 51 (98th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        1.06%

The change in home prices for California are shown above for five time periods.
For example: California appreciated 1.80% in the Last Quarter. At that rate, the
California Real Estate Market was ranked 14th out of the 51 real estate markets
of all 50 U.S. States and the District of Columbia. California was in the 74th
percentile. So California performed better in the Last Quarter than 74% of
these 51 real estate markets.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: California

The all time high in the California Home Price Index was 645.2 in the 3rd
Quarter, of 2006. The 1st Quarter, 2018 index value was 638.4. That's a
decline of 6.84 points or 1.06% below the California Home Price Index all time
high.  The Home Price Index indicates that the California Market is up 18% over
the last 10 years. Home prices in the California Real Estate Market have gained
8.08% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 291%.

The 1st Quarter index value was 11.27 points higher than the 4th Quarter,
2017 index value of 627.10, resulting in a 1.80% rise in the 1st Quarter for the
California Market.

The California Home Price Index has increased for the last 24 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index is Washington DC, with increases in the last 28 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive declines in the Home Price
Index are North Dakota and Connecticut, with declines in the last 2 consecutive
quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the California Real Estate
Market was 29% in the twelve months ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2004. The
worst annual change in home values  in the California Market was -23% in the
twelve months ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2008.

The highest growth in home values in the California Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 74% in the three years ended with the 4th Quarter of
2005. The worst performance over a three year period in the California Market
was -36% in the three years ended with the 3rd Quarter of 2009.

This page provides a long term graph and commentary of the California Home
Price Index.  Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's detailed research
and statistics about California Home Prices will be at your fingertips when you
need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the California Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the California Real Estate Market. As a result,
Home Price data is not available for a number of months after the end of each
quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: California

The trend of California Home Prices relative to 50 states and the District of
Columbia is detailed below. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each
paragraph identifies the top and bottom performing markets as well as the
average and median performance for all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 1st Quarter of 2018, California Home Prices had a rank of 14, with
appreciation of 1.80%. The top performing real estate market during the 1st
Quarter was Nevada, with a rise of 3.23%. The worst market during that period
was Alaska, with appreciation of -0.96%.
The median for all markets during the 1st Quarter was 1.11%. The average for
the quarter was 1.11%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, California Home Prices had a rank of 10, with
appreciation during the year of 8.08%. The top performing market during the
last year was Nevada, with an increase of 13.2%. The worst real estate market
during that period was North Dakota, with appreciation of 0.6%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.98%. The average was
6.06%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 1st Quarter of 2018, California Home Prices
ranked 4, with a total appreciation of 56.9%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Nevada, with a growth in value of 83%.
The worst market during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of 4%.
The median for all markets during this period was 21%. The average over the 5
years was 27%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 1st Quarter of 2018, California Home Prices
had a rank of 12, with appreciation during the decade of 18%. The top
performing market during the period was Colorado, with a rise of 52%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Connecticut, with
appreciation of -14%.
The median for all markets over the last 10 years was 10%. The average over
that time frame was 12%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 1st Quarter of 2018, California Home Prices
had a rank of 2, with total growth over the 20 year period of 194%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was Washington DC, with an
increase of 347%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Ohio, with
appreciation of 41%.
The median for all markets during the last 20 years was 98%. The average  
over that period was 103%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the California Real Estate
Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for California. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Thursday, August 16, 2018.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.


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California- House Price Index (HPI)
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The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in California single family home prices in logarithmic
scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and
appreciation rates are provided below.
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
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2005
2010
2035
2015
2020
2025
2030
100
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10