Commentary  25912
2nd Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Arizona


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      82%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in all 50
states, the District of Columbia and 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The
House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the
Arizona housing market for the 12 months ending with the 2nd Quarter of 2018
is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Projection for Arizona is 82%. In other words,
when tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct
82% of the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability
for rising house prices in Arizona is 82% during this period. If this Housing
Market Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 2nd Quarter of
2018 than they were in the 2nd Quarter of 2017. Check this page each quarter
for updates to the Arizona Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      78%

The forecast for the trend in the Arizona housing market for the 3 years ending
with the 2nd Quarter of 2020 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Prediction for
Arizona is 78%. In other words, when tested against historical data, the
forecasting methodology was correct 78% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Arizona is 78% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 2nd Quarter of 2020 than they were in the 2nd
Quarter of 2017. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Arizona Real
Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
2nd Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Arizona


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     3.24%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  8.5%
Last 5 Years                                     57%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -11%
Last 20 Years                                   117%
Decline From All Time High               12.46%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1987      -0.25%
1988      0.91%
1989      -0.53%
1990      -0.87%
1991      4.92%
1992      1.54%
1993      3.41%
1994      5.19%
1995      6.19%
1996      3.79%
1997      4.92%
1998      4.95%
1999      4.88%
2000      6.41%
2001      6.37%
2002      5.67%
2003      7.35%
2004      16.12%
2005      35.65%
2006      7.73%
2007      -5.19%
2008      -18.70%
2009      -14.93%
2010      -8.81%
2011      -7.23%
2012      8.12%
2013      14.01%
2014      6.51%
2015      7.18%
2016      6.62%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              3.24%         Rank: 13 of 51 (76th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  8.5%           Rank: 8 of 51 (86th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              57%            Rank: 5 of 51 (92nd Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   -11%           Rank: 46 of 51 (10th Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            117%          Rank: 17 of 51 (68th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        12.46%

The change in home prices for Arizona are shown above for five time periods.
For example: Arizona appreciated 3.24% in the Last Quarter. At that rate, the
Arizona Real Estate Market was ranked 13th out of the 51 real estate markets
of all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. Arizona was in the 76th
percentile. So Arizona performed better in the Last Quarter than 76% of these
51 real estate markets.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
2nd Quarter, 2017 Housing Statistics: Arizona

The data and analysis on this page pertains to Arizona, hereinafter referred to
as "Arizona". The all time high in the Arizona Home Price Index was 426.9 in the
4th Quarter, of 2006. The 2nd Quarter, 2017 index value was 373.7. That's a
decline of 53.18 points or 12.46% below the Arizona Home Price Index all time
high.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Arizona Market is down 11% over
the last 10 years. Home prices in the Arizona Real Estate Market have gained
8.52% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 173%.

The 2nd Quarter index value was 11.73 points higher than the 1st Quarter,
2017 index value of 361.96, resulting in a 3.24% rise in the 2nd Quarter for the
Arizona Market.

The Arizona Home Price Index has increased for the last 21 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index is Washington DC, with increases in the last 25 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive declines in the Home Price
Index is Alaska, with declines in the last 1 consecutive quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Arizona Real Estate
Market was 36% in the twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 2005. The
worst annual change in home values  in the Arizona Market was -19% in the
twelve months ended with the 4th Quarter of 2008.

The highest growth in home values in the Arizona Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 75% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of
2006. The worst performance over a three year period in the Arizona Market
was -38% in the three years ended with the 1st Quarter of 2011.

This page provides a long term graph and commentary of the Arizona Home
Price Index.  Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's detailed research
and statistics about Arizona Home Prices will be at your fingertips when you
need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Arizona Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Arizona Real Estate Market. As a result,
Home Price data is not available for a number of months after the end of each
quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
2nd Quarter, 2017 Housing Data: Arizona

The trend of Arizona Home Prices relative to 50 states and the District of
Columbia is detailed below. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each
paragraph identifies the top and bottom performing markets as well as the
average and median performance for all cities during each time period. The
data and analysis on this page pertains to Arizona, hereinafter referred to as
"Arizona".

Last Quarter:
During the 2nd Quarter of 2017, Arizona Home Prices had a rank of 13, with
appreciation of 3.24%. The top performing real estate market during the 2nd
Quarter was Idaho, with a rise of 4.76%. The worst market during that period
was Alaska, with appreciation of -0.14%.
The median for all markets during the 2nd Quarter was 2.34%. The average for
the quarter was 2.31%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Arizona Home Prices had a rank of 8, with
appreciation during the year of 8.52%. The top performing market during the
last year was Washington, with an increase of 11.4%. The worst real estate
market during that period was Alaska, with appreciation of 0.7%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.28%. The average was
5.57%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2017, Arizona Home Prices
ranked 5, with a total appreciation of 56.5%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Nevada, with a growth in value of 81%.
The worst market during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of 4%.
The median for all markets during this period was 19%. The average over the 5
years was 26%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 2nd Quarter of 2017, Arizona Home Prices
had a rank of 46, with appreciation during the decade of -11%. The top
performing market during the period was North Dakota, with a rise of 53%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Nevada, with
appreciation of -17%.
The median for all markets over the last 10 years was 6%. The average over
that time frame was 7%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 2nd Quarter of 2017, Arizona Home Prices
had a rank of 17, with total growth over the 20 year period of 117%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was Washington DC, with an
increase of 343%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Ohio, with
appreciation of 43%.
The median for all markets during the last 20 years was 98%. The average  
over that period was 103%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Arizona Real Estate
Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Arizona. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Tuesday, November 7, 2017.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2017; All rights reserved.


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Arizona - House Price Index (HPI)
LittleBigHomes.com
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Arizona single family home prices in logarithmic
scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and
appreciation rates are provided below.
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
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2005
2010
2035
2015
2020
2025
2030
100
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