Commentary  25909
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Alaska


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      85%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in all 50
states, the District of Columbia and 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The
House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the
Alaska housing market for the 12 months ending with the 1st Quarter of 2019 is
UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Projection for Alaska is 85%. In other words,
when tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct
85% of the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability
for rising house prices in Alaska is 85% during this period. If this Housing
Market Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 1st Quarter of
2019 than they were in the 1st Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter
for updates to the Alaska Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      78%

The forecast for the trend in the Alaska housing market for the 3 years ending
with the 1st Quarter of 2021 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Prediction for
Alaska is 78%. In other words, when tested against historical data, the
forecasting methodology was correct 78% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Alaska is 78% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 1st Quarter of 2021 than they were in the 1st
Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Alaska Real
Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Alaska


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     -0.96%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  1.8%
Last 5 Years                                     12%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14%
Last 20 Years                                   100%
Decline From All Time High               0.96%


Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1988      25.95%
1989      -22.83%
1990      16.84%
1991      10.40%
1992      3.35%
1993      2.40%
1994      3.77%
1995      4.61%
1996      5.22%
1997      2.64%
1998      2.38%
1999      3.18%
2000      2.09%
2001      5.46%
2002      4.98%
2003      8.51%
2004      9.55%
2005      13.50%
2006      6.75%
2007      1.76%
2008      -0.16%
2009      -0.76%
2010      0.19%
2011      0.81%
2012      0.90%
2013      2.87%
2014      2.28%
2015      3.75%
2016      0.90%
2017      3.45%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              -0.96%        Rank: 51 of 51 (Last Place)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  1.8%           Rank: 50 of 51 (2nd Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              12%            Rank: 49 of 51 (4th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   14%            Rank: 20 of 51 (62nd Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            100%          Rank: 25 of 51 (52nd Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        0.96%

The change in home prices for Alaska are shown above for five time periods.
For example: Alaska appreciated -0.96% in the Last Quarter. At that rate, the
Alaska Real Estate Market was ranked 51st out of the 51 real estate markets of
all 50 U.S. States and the District of Columbia. Alaska was in the last place. So
Alaska performed better in the Last Quarter than 0% of these 51 real estate
markets.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Alaska

The all time high in the Alaska Home Price Index was 324.5 in the 4th Quarter,
of 2017. The 1st Quarter, 2018 index value was 321.4. That's a decline of 3.11
points or 0.96% below the Alaska Home Price Index all time high.  The Home
Price Index indicates that the Alaska Market is up 14% over the last 10 years.
Home prices in the Alaska Real Estate Market have gained 1.81% over the last
12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 169%.

The 1st Quarter index value was 3.11 points lower than the 4th Quarter, 2017
index value of 324.48, resulting in a 0.96% decline for the 1st Quarter in the
Alaska Market.

The Alaska Home Price Index declined in the last quarter after increasing in the
previous 4 quarters. The current record holders for consecutive declines in the
Home Price Index are North Dakota and Connecticut, with declines in the last 2
consecutive quarters. The current record holder for consecutive increases in
the Home Price Index is Washington DC, with increases in the last 28
consecutive quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Alaska Real Estate
Market was 62% in the twelve months ended with the 3rd Quarter of 1981. The
worst annual change in home values  in the Alaska Market was -26% in the
twelve months ended with the 3rd Quarter of 1980.

The highest growth in home values in the Alaska Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 38% in the three years ended with the 1st Quarter of
1993. The worst performance over a three year period in the Alaska Market
was -31% in the three years ended with the 4th Quarter of 1987.

This page provides a long term graph and commentary of the Alaska Home
Price Index.  Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's detailed research
and statistics about Alaska Home Prices will be at your fingertips when you
need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Alaska Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as used
in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price
Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Alaska Real Estate Market. As a result, Home
Price data is not available for a number of months after the end of each quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Alaska

The trend of Alaska Home Prices relative to 50 states and the District of
Columbia is detailed below. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each
paragraph identifies the top and bottom performing markets as well as the
average and median performance for all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 1st Quarter of 2018, Alaska Home Prices had the worst performance
in the country, with appreciation of -0.96%. The top performer during the 1st
Quarter was Nevada, with appreciation of 3.23%.
The median for all markets during the 1st Quarter was 1.11%. The average for
the quarter was 1.11%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Alaska Home Prices had a rank of 50, with
appreciation during the year of 1.81%. The top performing market during the
last year was Nevada, with an increase of 13.2%. The worst real estate market
during that period was North Dakota, with appreciation of 0.6%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.98%. The average was
6.06%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 1st Quarter of 2018, Alaska Home Prices
ranked 49, with a total appreciation of 11.7%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Nevada, with a growth in value of 83%.
The worst market during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of 4%.
The median for all markets during this period was 21%. The average over the 5
years was 27%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 1st Quarter of 2018, Alaska Home Prices had
a rank of 20, with appreciation during the decade of 14%. The top performing
market during the period was Colorado, with a rise of 52%. The worst real
estate market during the 10 year time period was Connecticut, with appreciation
of -14%.
The median for all markets over the last 10 years was 10%. The average over
that time frame was 12%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 1st Quarter of 2018, Alaska Home Prices had
a rank of 25, with total growth over the 20 year period of 100%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was Washington DC, with an
increase of 347%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Ohio, with
appreciation of 41%.
The median for all markets during the last 20 years was 98%. The average  
over that period was 103%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Alaska Real Estate
Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Alaska. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Thursday, August 16, 2018.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.


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Alabama Real Estate Market: Percent Change in Home Prices
Alaska Real Estate Market & Home Price Forecast
Alaska Real Estate: Housing Market Trend
Alaska- House Price Index (HPI)
LittleBigHomes.com
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Alaska single family home prices in logarithmic
scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and
appreciation rates are provided below.
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2035
2015
2020
2025
2030
100
1000
10