Commentary  25910
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Alabama


Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      87%

LittleBigHomes.com publishes forecasts for the trend in home prices in all 50
states, the District of Columbia and 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The
House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. The forecast for the trend in the
Alabama housing market for the 12 months ending with the 1st Quarter of 2019
is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Projection for Alabama is 87%. In other
words, when tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology was
correct 87% of the time. Accordingly, LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the
probability for rising house prices in Alabama is 87% during this period. If this
Housing Market Forecast is correct, home prices will be higher in the 1st
Quarter of 2019 than they were in the 1st Quarter of 2018. Check this page
each quarter for updates to the Alabama Real Estate Market Forecast.


3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      83%

The forecast for the trend in the Alabama housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 1st Quarter of 2021 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Prediction for Alabama is 83%. In other words, when tested against historical
data, the forecasting methodology was correct 83% of the time. Accordingly,
LittleBigHomes.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Alabama is 83% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 1st Quarter of 2021 than they were in the 1st
Quarter of 2018. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Alabama
Real Estate Market Forecast.




Part 2: MARKET SUMMARY
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Alabama


Historical Home Price Appreciation
Last Quarter                                     0.26%
Last Year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  3.8%
Last 5 Years                                     14%
Last 10 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Last 20 Years                                   58%



Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1988      2.28%
1989      3.71%
1990      0.59%
1991      4.58%
1992      3.71%
1993      4.50%
1994      2.40%
1995      5.32%
1996      3.20%
1997      4.68%
1998      4.85%
1999      1.67%
2000      3.35%
2001      5.26%
2002      3.36%
2003      3.26%
2004      5.02%
2005      8.03%
2006      7.39%
2007      3.10%
2008      0.03%
2009      -3.13%
2010      -2.34%
2011      -2.45%
2012      -0.73%
2013      -1.49%
2014      3.07%
2015      2.84%
2016      3.28%
2017      4.00%


Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              0.26%         Rank: 43 of 51 (16th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  3.8%           Rank: 41 of 51 (20th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              14%            Rank: 44 of 51 (14th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   2%              Rank: 40 of 51 (22nd Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            58%            Rank: 47 of 51 (8th Percentile)


The change in home prices for Alabama are shown above for five time periods.
For example: Alabama appreciated 0.26% in the Last Quarter. At that rate, the
Alabama Real Estate Market was ranked 43rd out of the 51 real estate markets
of all 50 U.S. States and the District of Columbia. Alabama was in the 16th
percentile. So Alabama performed better in the Last Quarter than 16% of these
51 real estate markets.

























Part 3: MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Statistics: Alabama

The all time high in the Alabama Home Price Index was 313.3 in the 1st Quarter,
of 2018.  The Home Price Index indicates that the Alabama Market is up 2%
over the last 10 years. Home prices in the Alabama Real Estate Market have
gained 3.79% over the last 12 months. Over the last thirty years, it is up 120%.

The 1st Quarter index value was 0.80 points higher than the 4th Quarter, 2017
index value of 312.49, resulting in a 0.26% rise in the 1st Quarter for the
Alabama Market.

The Alabama Home Price Index has increased for the last 5 consecutive
quarters. The current record holder for consecutive increases in the Home
Price Index is Washington DC, with increases in the last 28 consecutive
quarters. The current record holders for consecutive declines in the Home Price
Index are North Dakota and Connecticut, with declines in the last 2 consecutive
quarters.

The highest annual change in the value of houses in the Alabama Real Estate
Market was 14% in the twelve months ended with the 3rd Quarter of 1977. The
worst annual change in home values  in the Alabama Market was -5% in the
twelve months ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2010.

The highest growth in home values in the Alabama Real Estate Market over a
three year period was 22% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of
2007. The worst performance over a three year period in the Alabama Market
was -9% in the three years ended with the 2nd Quarter of 2011.

This page provides a long term graph and commentary of the Alabama Home
Price Index.  Bookmark this page! Then LittleBigHomes.com's detailed research
and statistics about Alabama Home Prices will be at your fingertips when you
need them.

All calculations are based on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for
the Alabama Market. The terms House Price Index and Home Price Index, as
used in this site, refer to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House
Price Index.

Significant time is required to research quarterly sales price and appraisal data
from mortgage transactions in the Alabama Real Estate Market. As a result,
Home Price data is not available for a number of months after the end of each
quarter.



Part 4: APPRECIATION RATES & RANKINGS
1st Quarter, 2018 Housing Data: Alabama

The trend of Alabama Home Prices relative to 50 states and the District of
Columbia is detailed below. Five different time periods are reviewed.  Each
paragraph identifies the top and bottom performing markets as well as the
average and median performance for all cities during each time period.

Last Quarter:
During the 1st Quarter of 2018, Alabama Home Prices had a rank of 43, with
appreciation of 0.26%. The top performing real estate market during the 1st
Quarter was Nevada, with a rise of 3.23%. The worst market during that period
was Alaska, with appreciation of -0.96%.
The median for all markets during the 1st Quarter was 1.11%. The average for
the quarter was 1.11%.

Last Year:
During the last 12 months, Alabama Home Prices had a rank of 41, with
appreciation during the year of 3.79%. The top performing market during the
last year was Nevada, with an increase of 13.2%. The worst real estate market
during that period was North Dakota, with appreciation of 0.6%.
The median for all markets during this period was 5.98%. The average was
6.06%.

Last 5 Years:
Over the 5 years ended with the 1st Quarter of 2018, Alabama Home Prices
ranked 44, with a total appreciation of 13.6%. The top performing real estate
market during the 5 year period was Nevada, with a growth in value of 83%.
The worst market during that period was Connecticut, with appreciation of 4%.
The median for all markets during this period was 21%. The average over the 5
years was 27%.

Last 10 Years:
During the 10 years ended in the 1st Quarter of 2018, Alabama Home Prices
had a rank of 40, with appreciation during the decade of 2%. The top
performing market during the period was Colorado, with a rise of 52%. The
worst real estate market during the 10 year time period was Connecticut, with
appreciation of -14%.
The median for all markets over the last 10 years was 10%. The average over
that time frame was 12%.

Last 20 Years:
During the 20 years ended in the 1st Quarter of 2018, Alabama Home Prices
had a rank of 47, with total growth over the 20 year period of 58%. The top
performing real estate market during the period was Washington DC, with an
increase of 347%. The worst market during the last 20 years was Ohio, with
appreciation of 41%.
The median for all markets during the last 20 years was 98%. The average  
over that period was 103%.

Historical research data on the Home Price Index for the Alabama Real Estate
Market is available back to the 1st Quarter, of 1975. All calculations are based
on the quarterly value of the House Price Index for Alabama. Real estate
appreciation figures represent total net increase or decrease over each time
period. (Unless specifically stated, the figures do not represent annual or
quarterly rates of change.)



Data Source for Commentary & Charts: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Updated Thursday, August 16, 2018.
SignalTrend  Inc. 2008 - 2018; All rights reserved.


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Alabama Real Estate Market: Percent Change in Home Prices
Alabama Real Estate Market & Home Price Forecast
Alabama Real Estate: Housing Market Trend
Alabama - House Price Index (HPI)
LittleBigHomes.com
The House Price Index (HPI) shows changes in Alabama single family home prices in logarithmic
scale. The March, 1995 index value equals 100.  Real estate forecasts, analysis, statistics and
appreciation rates are provided below.
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2035
2015
2020
2025
2030
100
1000
10